Free tool · Direct-channel ROI model

What's a direct
channel worth?

Model it in sixty seconds. Move the sliders to your numbers — ad spend, CAC, margin, reorder cadence — and watch the payback month and a modeled exit value compute live. The defaults are seeded from a real engagement; the math is the same one we run for clients.

Model your own channel

Start here — model what a direct channel could be worth to your business. Every input updates live, down to a modeled exit value. Defaults are seeded from the real case below; change them to your numbers.

Monthly ad spend$25,000

Blended CAC$200

Average order value$200

Orders / customer / year2.4

Gross margin77%

Time horizon46 mo

Exit revenue multiple8.0×

Modeled exit value

8.0× annual run-rate

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Customers acquired

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Cumulative revenue

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Cumulative gross profit

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Payback month

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Blended ROAS

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Net contribution

Projection

cumulative · gross profit vs. ad spend

Cumulative gross profit Cumulative revenue Cumulative ad spend

Illustrative model. Assumes steady acquisition and retained reorder cadence over the horizon; excludes fulfillment and overhead. For directional comparison, not a forecast.

The model, month by month

The same engine, laid out as a ledger. Every row recomputes the instant you move a slider above — this is the spreadsheet the exit value is built on, not a screenshot of one.

Month	New cust.	Active base	Revenue	Gross profit	Ad spend	Cum. GP	Cum. spend	Net position
Total

Net position = cumulative gross profit − cumulative ad spend. The highlighted row is payback — the first month gross profit overtakes everything spent to acquire it. Synthetic, illustrative; excludes fulfillment and overhead.

Now see it for your numbers.

The model above is yours to play with. When you want the version built on your real data — and a read on whether a direct channel is the move — that's a 30-minute conversation.

Prefer the story first? Read the full case study →